ExxonMobil’s US$15 Billion Bet: Can It Change Indonesia’s Energy Future?

In today’s world, the oil and gas industry has undergone a significant transformation driven by the adoption of emerging technologies. These Advanced technologies offer oil and gas companies opportunities to optimize operations, boost safety protocols, and increase productivity. With real-time monitoring systems aimed at minimizing equipment failures and state of the art drilling methods, it’s crucial to not only focus on the advantages these innovations provide but also address the challenges and risks that come with their implementation throughout the operations. Technologies are playing a pivotal role across the entire oil and gas value chain upstream, midstream, and downstream. In upstream operations, innovations like Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Machine Learning (ML) are revolutionizing the way companies analyze geological data and locate reserves. Chevron has been at the forefront of adopting AI and machine learning to enhance its oil and gas exploration efforts. By integrating these technologies into its operations, the company uses machine learning algorithms to study seismic data, identifying patterns that predict potential oil and gas reserves with higher precision. One of Chevron’s key advancements is in seismic imaging, where AI-driven tools help generate detailed 3D subsurface models. These models enable geologists to pinpoint optimal drilling locations, significantly reducing the risk of dry wells and saving both time and financial resources. Through the use of AI, Chevron has also shortened the time between data acquisition and actionable insights, making its exploration processes faster and more efficient.Blockchain is making significant strides in the oil and gas industry, particularly within the midstream segment, where it enhances transparency, security, and accountability in supply chain operations. Shell has taken a leading role in implementing blockchain technology, through the use of blockchain, shell is able to track and verify the movement of raw materials, equipment, and products across various stages of its supply chain. One key feature of Shell’s blockchain adoption is its ability to automate transactions using smart contracts. These digital contracts execute automatically when predefined conditions are met, which simplifies complex regulatory and compliance requirements. This automation helps Shell to maintain a high level of transparency and reduces the potential for human error, thus making the process more efficient and secure​. The technology not only improves the tracking of physical materials but also enhances accountability and trust among stakeholders like suppliers, regulators, and customers.In the downstream sector, ExxonMobil is leading the way in refining process automation, utilizing advanced technologies like Distributed Control Systems (DCS) and Advanced Process Control (APC) to enhance efficiency and product quality across its global refining operations. By integrating AI-driven models and predictive maintenance strategies, ExxonMobil can optimize critical process parameters, reduce energy consumption, and minimize unplanned downtime. Their adoption of digital twin technology allows for real-time simulations of refining processes, enabling better decision-making and process adjustments without interrupting production. This commitment to digital transformation not only boosts operational performance but also supports a more sustainable and reliable energy supply chain.In conclusion, the integration of advanced technologies like AI, blockchain, and automation is revolutionizing the oil and gas industry across upstream, midstream, and downstream operations. These innovations enable companies such as chevron, shell, and exxonmobil to optimize processes, enhance efficiency, and improve safety while addressing the challenges that come with technological transformation. By embracing digital tools like predictive maintenance, smart contracts, and digital twins, the industry can achieve greater sustainability and reliability, positioning itself for continued success in an increasingly competitive and environmentally conscious market.

Image source : Suara.com/Ema RohimahThe recent hike in the price of fuel oil has left the public infuriated. On the same day when President Joko Widodo and the ministers held a press conference last September, the official fuel price increased by 30 percent. The hike—the first in eight years—raised the Pertalite's price from Rp. 7.650 to Rp. 10.000 per liter, diesel price from Rp. 5.150 to Rp. 6.800, and Pertamax from Rp 12.500 to Rp 14.500. This then begs a question, why did the price of gasoline rise?One thing we should know, anything that impacts crude oil will affect gasoline. The price of crude oil, however, always fluctuates.  One of the factors that can influence the recent price of crude oil is the supply and demand of crude oil.The principle of supply and demand is the same as what we’ve learned at school, when demand increases, oil prices rise (or supply decreases), and vice versa. For example, Brent crude oil, a type of crude oil, plummeted to $22.58 a barrel in March 2020, reaching its lowest level since 2002 due to the COVID-19 pandemic. That can happen because a lot of businesses closed, which caused the low demand for oil.Geopolitical events in any of the major oil-producing countries might also result in oil trade wars and affect oil prices. Oil prices can skyrocket as a result of conflict or crisis. This is because traders are concerned that it will limit the oil supply, causing prices to rise. The recent Russia-Ukraine conflict made oil prices top $100 per barrel for the first time since 2014 in February. What a number.In addition to crude oil, outside factors may also contribute to raising the price. Retail prices for fuel oil can be influenced by production costs and government regulations, too. The components of production costs that must be considered are the cost of crude oil, the cost of refining, the cost of distribution and marketing, and the cost of taxes. According to the Finance Ministry, Sri Mulyani, the economic price (crude oil price + production cost combined) for Pertalite is supposed to be Rp. 14.450 per liter while diesel is Rp. 13.950 per liter. Of course, the retail gasoline prices that we pay in SPBU are already subsidized by the government.Difference between subsidized prices at the pump and economic prices in Indonesia. Source: Investor Daily Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Gasoline and Diesel Fuel UpdateGovernment policy plays a vital role in ensuring that the price is reasonable for both the people and the country. According to President Joko Widodo, the energy subsidy had tripled this year from its original budget, triggered by rising global prices of oil and gas. So, rather than increasing the number of subsidies, the decision to raise fuel prices appears plausible for the time being. But why isn't the price of gasoline rising in neighboring countries like Malaysia?Well, despite having similarities in many aspects, the production and distribution of energy are structurally quite different due to factors like market size and domestic supply. Indonesia has not recently made significant profits because the domestic market has become the primary market, which is more political and economical to people than profit-driven. This presents a challenge because consumers are used to the days of cheap, plentiful oil, while Indonesia is producing less than it once did. Oil production and consumption in Indonesia Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy, various yearsPertamina’s limited refinery capacity means that it has become ever more reliant on imports and thus more sensitive to swings in global energy prices. Contrarily, Malaysia has consistently generated profits and has managed to hold gasoline prices steady despite volatility in the world energy markets. It is difficult to compare the two countries since Malaysia has a much smaller domestic market than Indonesia.The rising of fuel prices is a really sensitive issue, any changes will have a significant impact on households and small businesses. Indonesia probably needs to allocate more spending toward human resources investment, like creating more jobs and improving education, in order to be resilient to the swings of global energy. It must do more than just raise the prices to benefit from its demographic transition.References: https://thediplomat.com/2022/09/why-the-price-of-petrol-increased-in-indonesia-but-not-in-malaysia/https://www.thebalancemoney.com/how-are-oil-prices-determined-3305650#:~:text=What%20affects%20the%20price%20of,supply%2C%20and%20expected%20global%20demand.https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/072515/top-factors-reports-affect-price-oil.asphttps://www.investopedia.com/articles/economics/08/determining-oil-prices.asp

In 2026, the oil and gas industry’s AI revolution is no longer a forecast, it is an operational reality. The world’s largest energy companies have moved past experimentation, embedding AI into drill floors, control rooms, and thousands of kilometers of pipeline. The results are tangible: fewer equipment failures, lower costs, faster drilling cycles, and tighter emissions control.ExxonMobil was the first in the industry to deploy AI-driven closed-loop drilling automation in a deepwater setting, operating in Guyana where AI systems adjust drilling parameters in real time without human input. In the Permian Basin, machine learning has lifted shale well output by more than 5% and cut data preparation time by roughly 40%.BP has wired over two million sensors across assets in the Gulf of Mexico, the North Sea, and Oman, feeding data into digital twins and its in-house AURA system that simultaneously tracks operational inefficiencies and monitors carbon and methane emissions. The company reports drilling more wells annually as a direct result. Chevron, meanwhile, deploys AI-enabled drones over its Permian operations to detect methane leaks and equipment failures without putting personnel in hazardous zones. Shell applies machine learning to forecast equipment failures before they occur, while Saudi Aramco uses computer vision to monitor thousands of kilometers of pipelines for anomalies.The financial case is well-documented. Boston Consulting Group reports AI has cut operating costs by 15–20% and reduced key cycle times from months to weeks. McKinsey estimates predictive analytics alone lowers maintenance costs by up to 25%. At the field level, AI systems have prevented over 140 hours of unplanned downtime, protecting 1.6% of production uptime figures that translate directly into revenue.The global AI in oil and gas market was valued at USD 7.6 billion in 2025 and is projected to surpass USD 25 billion by 2034, growing at 14.2% annually. Upstream operations account for over half of all AI deployment, driven by the data-intensive nature of exploration and production. North America leads adoption, while Asia-Pacific is forecast as the fastest-growing region through 2031.The companies advancing fastest are not doing so simply to cut costs. They are responding to growing complexity: volatile markets, tightening emissions rules, aging infrastructure, and the sheer volume of real-time data across global assets. Managing all of that with human judgment alone has become impractical. In 2026, AI is not the future of oil and gas. It is the present. Writer: Akhirian Taka

Early in 2024, there is a heightened risk of disruptions to the global oil supply due to the conflict in the Middle East —a region that supplies one-third of the world's seaborne oil trade— especially for oil flows that pass through the Suez Canal and the Red Sea. The International Energy Agency (IEA) has warned that the US and UK airstrikes on Houthi targets in Yemen in response to attacks on tankers in the Red Sea have expressed worries  about the potential for an escalation of the conflict. This important trade route handled almost 10% of the world's seaborne oil commerce in 2023, or about 7.2 million barrels per day (mb/d) of crude and oil products, as well as 8% of the world's trade in liquefied natural gas (LNG). The primary alternate shipping route around the Cape of Good Hope in Africa prolongs voyages by up to two weeks, which puts strain on international supply systems and raises the cost of freight and insurance.Stable oil prices despite escalating tensionsOil companies are taking a cautious stance in response to these escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Mike Sommers, CEO of the American Petroleum Institute, has expressed worries about the growing chance of the crisis intensifying and derailing oil supplies. And although Oil prices have stayed comparatively steady despite the tensions; some experts attribute this to the impact of economic considerations on oil prices. Thus far, the Houthi raids and other Red Sea disruptions—such as the diverting of supplies away from the Suez Canal—have not had a substantial effect on energy prices. Experts have cautioned that tensions in Iran, particularly around the Hormuz, may have an impact on oil prices and that the longer the violence in Gaza continues, the more likely it is that a regional crisis may break out. The closure of important trade routes, which would have previously led to a significant increase in energy prices, has not had the same effect due to the market's confidence in the availability of supply.Assessing Supply and DemandThe World Bank's Commodity Markets Outlook in October 2023 provided a preliminary assessment of the potential near-term implications of the conflict. In a "medium disruption" scenario, the global oil supply would be reduced by 2-4 million barrels per day, initially increasing oil prices by 21% to 35%. In a "large disruption" scenario, with a reduction of 5-10 million barrels per day, oil prices could increase by 56% to 75% initially. Additionally, The IEA has revised its forecast for oil demand upward, anticipating a larger increase in global oil demand in 2024. The IEA's forecast indicates a balanced oil market, with world oil demand expected to grow by 1.1 million barrels per day in 2024, and non-OPEC supply growth projected to reach 1.2 million barrels per day. This balanced outlook is significant, considering the potential impact of the geopolitical tensions and disruptions in the Red Sea on the global oil supply. The agency's assessment of a "comfortable" oil market in 2024, despite the disruptions in the Red Sea, reflects the resilience of the oil market due to factors such as ample oil and gas supply, weaker demand in certain countries, and the ability of tankers to find alternative routes to deliver oil and gas products. ConclusionWhile the present upheavals and wars aren't having a big effect on the world energy markets, the international community should still be prepared and pay close attention to the Middle East's ongoing volatility. The developing scenario in the region could result in further escalation and have an effect on the energy landscape. Thus, in 2024, it will still be imperative to keep an eye on Middle Eastern geopolitical developments and any potential effects they may have on the energy markets.Written By: Arya Nugraha Aulia Rahman YusupReferences:Oil prices steady despite Middle East tensions, but risks are rising | Oil and Gas News | Al JazeeraOil Market Report - January 2024 – Analysis - IEAConflict in Middle East Could Bring ‘Dual Shock’ to Global Commodity Markets (worldbank.org)Geopolitical tensions in Middle East bear risks for oil supplies — IEA - Business & Economy - TASSIEA's Birol predicts 'comfortable' oil market despite Red Sea disruption | Reuters