Navigating Exploration in the Oil and Gas Industry of Indonesia through Upstream Series

PT Pertamina Hulu Energi (PHE), Indonesia's state-owned upstream oil and gas subsidiary, recorded total oil production of 475,000 barrels per day (bopd) through April 2026, a significant drop from the 556,000 bopd achieved across 2025. The company's CEO, Awang Lazuardi, attributed the decline to a combination of domestic operational setbacks and geopolitical turbulence abroad, revealing the breadth of pressures bearing down on Indonesia's largest upstream operator.At home, the most disruptive incident occurred at Blok Rokan in Riau, PHE's single largest producing asset. Early in the year, a gas supply disruption arose after a pipeline integrity failure, specifically a leak in a transmission line operated by Transportasi Gas Indonesia (TGI). The outage lasted more than 20 days, severely curtailing the gas-powered energy supply to production facilities across the block. "Average oil production at Rokan dropped quite sharply," Awang said during a hearing with the House of Representatives' Commission XII in late May. Domestic output for the period stood at 367,000 bopd, down from 396,000 bopd in 2025.Further domestic pressure came from Lapangan Banyu Urip, a joint-operated asset with ExxonMobil. PHE encountered facility constraints that limited efforts to ramp up gas production at the field, compounding the output shortfall at a time when the company was already struggling to recover losses at Rokan.On the international front, PHE holds a participating interest in West Qurna-1, an oil field in southern Iraq. Due to force majeure caused by the conflict between the United States, Israel, and Iran, the Iraqi government ordered a temporary shutdown of the field. The move cost PHE approximately 100,000 bopd of production. Though operations have since been permitted to resume, output remains at less than ten percent of capacity, allocated solely to meet Iraq's domestic needs, and a full recovery timeline remains uncertain.Together, these disruptions have pushed PHE's total production well below the government's 2026 lifting target of 610,000 bopd set in the state budget. Awang acknowledged the scale of the challenge but pointed to the temporary nature of several setbacks. Industry observers, however, note that structural vulnerabilities including aging infrastructure, geopolitical exposure, and dependence on a small number of high-output blocks continue to pose long-term risks to Indonesia's energy security goals.Written by: Akhirian Taka

An investment of US$15 billion has been made by ExxonMobil Corporation to establish a petrochemical refinery and carbon capture and storage (CCS) in Indonesia. This massive commitment of over Rp239 trillion aims to promote sustainable energy in the country by using an advanced technology to capture carbon dioxide (CO2) from industrial sources and store it underground. Carole Gall, President Director of ExxonMobil Indonesia, has underlined the corporation’s commitment in supporting environmental sustainability, including in achieving Indonesia's net-zero emission goals.Indonesia’s Minister of Investment and Downstream Industry, Rosan Roeslani, stated that ExxonMobil’s initiative was inspired by British Petroleum’s (BP) recent US$7 billion investment in the Tangguh Ubadari, Carbon Capture Utilization & Storage (CCUS), and Compression—or Tangguh UCC—project in Bintuni Bay, West Papua. This project is scheduled to start in 2028 and will include the development of the Ubadari gas field, the installation of CCUS and exhaust gas recirculation (EGR) at the Vorwata Field, and the improvement of the Tangguh LNG facilities with onshore compressors.While ExxonMobil's investment is twice that of BP's, both efforts share a common goal to cut greenhouse gas emissions and help Indonesia in transitioning to a more sustainable future. By implementing CCUS and EGR technologies, this project represents an important step toward increasing the country’s capacity for clean energy production. As more details of ExxonMobil's plans come to light, all eyes will turn to see how this investment would affect Indonesia's energy future.As the spotlight turns toward the execution of ExxonMobil's plans, this unprecedented investment holds the promise of reshaping Indonesia’s energy landscape. By fostering innovation, reducing environmental impact, and enhancing energy production capacity, ExxonMobil's CCS project could serve as a cornerstone for Indonesia's sustainable energy future. The successful implementation of this initiative will not only reinforce Indonesia's position as a key player in the global energy transition but also inspire other nations to follow suit in prioritizing sustainability and environmental stewardship

China's petrochemical – important components in many of the products that we use every day, such as clothing and detergents – surge is driving global oil demand growth, with the country's imports and production of naphtha and propane as petrochemical feedstocks reaching record-highs. This trend is expected to continue even as China's diesel and gasoline demand is expected to peak by 2025. Petrochemical feedstocks are expected to account for more than 40% of the 5.9 million barrels per day increase in global oil demand when it reaches 105.7 million barrels per day by 2030. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), the speed and scale of China's expansion in the petrochemical sector are unprecedented, substantially outpacing previous capacity additions in the Middle East and the United States.How is the surge in petrochemicals affecting the environment?The recent increase in the petrochemical industry has a significant environmental impact and presents a number of sustainability challenges that must be addressed. The production, utilization, and disposal of petrochemical products lead to heightened greenhouse gas emissions, poor air quality, and water contamination. The increased demand for petrochemicals also drives global oil demand, expected to raise the proportion of lighter oil products needed for petrochemicals, thereby exacerbating greenhouse gas emissions. In addition to that, petrochemical manufacturing processes release harmful airborne toxins, resulting in health issues like cancer, especially affecting low-income neighborhoods, particularly communities of color.

Early in 2024, there is a heightened risk of disruptions to the global oil supply due to the conflict in the Middle East —a region that supplies one-third of the world's seaborne oil trade— especially for oil flows that pass through the Suez Canal and the Red Sea. The International Energy Agency (IEA) has warned that the US and UK airstrikes on Houthi targets in Yemen in response to attacks on tankers in the Red Sea have expressed worries  about the potential for an escalation of the conflict. This important trade route handled almost 10% of the world's seaborne oil commerce in 2023, or about 7.2 million barrels per day (mb/d) of crude and oil products, as well as 8% of the world's trade in liquefied natural gas (LNG). The primary alternate shipping route around the Cape of Good Hope in Africa prolongs voyages by up to two weeks, which puts strain on international supply systems and raises the cost of freight and insurance.Stable oil prices despite escalating tensionsOil companies are taking a cautious stance in response to these escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Mike Sommers, CEO of the American Petroleum Institute, has expressed worries about the growing chance of the crisis intensifying and derailing oil supplies. And although Oil prices have stayed comparatively steady despite the tensions; some experts attribute this to the impact of economic considerations on oil prices. Thus far, the Houthi raids and other Red Sea disruptions—such as the diverting of supplies away from the Suez Canal—have not had a substantial effect on energy prices. Experts have cautioned that tensions in Iran, particularly around the Hormuz, may have an impact on oil prices and that the longer the violence in Gaza continues, the more likely it is that a regional crisis may break out. The closure of important trade routes, which would have previously led to a significant increase in energy prices, has not had the same effect due to the market's confidence in the availability of supply.Assessing Supply and DemandThe World Bank's Commodity Markets Outlook in October 2023 provided a preliminary assessment of the potential near-term implications of the conflict. In a "medium disruption" scenario, the global oil supply would be reduced by 2-4 million barrels per day, initially increasing oil prices by 21% to 35%. In a "large disruption" scenario, with a reduction of 5-10 million barrels per day, oil prices could increase by 56% to 75% initially. Additionally, The IEA has revised its forecast for oil demand upward, anticipating a larger increase in global oil demand in 2024. The IEA's forecast indicates a balanced oil market, with world oil demand expected to grow by 1.1 million barrels per day in 2024, and non-OPEC supply growth projected to reach 1.2 million barrels per day. This balanced outlook is significant, considering the potential impact of the geopolitical tensions and disruptions in the Red Sea on the global oil supply. The agency's assessment of a "comfortable" oil market in 2024, despite the disruptions in the Red Sea, reflects the resilience of the oil market due to factors such as ample oil and gas supply, weaker demand in certain countries, and the ability of tankers to find alternative routes to deliver oil and gas products. ConclusionWhile the present upheavals and wars aren't having a big effect on the world energy markets, the international community should still be prepared and pay close attention to the Middle East's ongoing volatility. The developing scenario in the region could result in further escalation and have an effect on the energy landscape. Thus, in 2024, it will still be imperative to keep an eye on Middle Eastern geopolitical developments and any potential effects they may have on the energy markets.Written By: Arya Nugraha Aulia Rahman YusupReferences:Oil prices steady despite Middle East tensions, but risks are rising | Oil and Gas News | Al JazeeraOil Market Report - January 2024 – Analysis - IEAConflict in Middle East Could Bring ‘Dual Shock’ to Global Commodity Markets (worldbank.org)Geopolitical tensions in Middle East bear risks for oil supplies — IEA - Business & Economy - TASSIEA's Birol predicts 'comfortable' oil market despite Red Sea disruption | Reuters