Why are Oil Prices Important for The Global Economy?

Early in 2024, there is a heightened risk of disruptions to the global oil supply due to the conflict in the Middle East —a region that supplies one-third of the world's seaborne oil trade— especially for oil flows that pass through the Suez Canal and the Red Sea. The International Energy Agency (IEA) has warned that the US and UK airstrikes on Houthi targets in Yemen in response to attacks on tankers in the Red Sea have expressed worries  about the potential for an escalation of the conflict. This important trade route handled almost 10% of the world's seaborne oil commerce in 2023, or about 7.2 million barrels per day (mb/d) of crude and oil products, as well as 8% of the world's trade in liquefied natural gas (LNG). The primary alternate shipping route around the Cape of Good Hope in Africa prolongs voyages by up to two weeks, which puts strain on international supply systems and raises the cost of freight and insurance.Stable oil prices despite escalating tensionsOil companies are taking a cautious stance in response to these escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Mike Sommers, CEO of the American Petroleum Institute, has expressed worries about the growing chance of the crisis intensifying and derailing oil supplies. And although Oil prices have stayed comparatively steady despite the tensions; some experts attribute this to the impact of economic considerations on oil prices. Thus far, the Houthi raids and other Red Sea disruptions—such as the diverting of supplies away from the Suez Canal—have not had a substantial effect on energy prices. Experts have cautioned that tensions in Iran, particularly around the Hormuz, may have an impact on oil prices and that the longer the violence in Gaza continues, the more likely it is that a regional crisis may break out. The closure of important trade routes, which would have previously led to a significant increase in energy prices, has not had the same effect due to the market's confidence in the availability of supply.Assessing Supply and DemandThe World Bank's Commodity Markets Outlook in October 2023 provided a preliminary assessment of the potential near-term implications of the conflict. In a "medium disruption" scenario, the global oil supply would be reduced by 2-4 million barrels per day, initially increasing oil prices by 21% to 35%. In a "large disruption" scenario, with a reduction of 5-10 million barrels per day, oil prices could increase by 56% to 75% initially. Additionally, The IEA has revised its forecast for oil demand upward, anticipating a larger increase in global oil demand in 2024. The IEA's forecast indicates a balanced oil market, with world oil demand expected to grow by 1.1 million barrels per day in 2024, and non-OPEC supply growth projected to reach 1.2 million barrels per day. This balanced outlook is significant, considering the potential impact of the geopolitical tensions and disruptions in the Red Sea on the global oil supply. The agency's assessment of a "comfortable" oil market in 2024, despite the disruptions in the Red Sea, reflects the resilience of the oil market due to factors such as ample oil and gas supply, weaker demand in certain countries, and the ability of tankers to find alternative routes to deliver oil and gas products. ConclusionWhile the present upheavals and wars aren't having a big effect on the world energy markets, the international community should still be prepared and pay close attention to the Middle East's ongoing volatility. The developing scenario in the region could result in further escalation and have an effect on the energy landscape. Thus, in 2024, it will still be imperative to keep an eye on Middle Eastern geopolitical developments and any potential effects they may have on the energy markets.Written By: Arya Nugraha Aulia Rahman YusupReferences:Oil prices steady despite Middle East tensions, but risks are rising | Oil and Gas News | Al JazeeraOil Market Report - January 2024 – Analysis - IEAConflict in Middle East Could Bring ‘Dual Shock’ to Global Commodity Markets (worldbank.org)Geopolitical tensions in Middle East bear risks for oil supplies — IEA - Business & Economy - TASSIEA's Birol predicts 'comfortable' oil market despite Red Sea disruption | Reuters

Image source : Suara.com/Ema RohimahThe recent hike in the price of fuel oil has left the public infuriated. On the same day when President Joko Widodo and the ministers held a press conference last September, the official fuel price increased by 30 percent. The hike—the first in eight years—raised the Pertalite's price from Rp. 7.650 to Rp. 10.000 per liter, diesel price from Rp. 5.150 to Rp. 6.800, and Pertamax from Rp 12.500 to Rp 14.500. This then begs a question, why did the price of gasoline rise?One thing we should know, anything that impacts crude oil will affect gasoline. The price of crude oil, however, always fluctuates.  One of the factors that can influence the recent price of crude oil is the supply and demand of crude oil.The principle of supply and demand is the same as what we’ve learned at school, when demand increases, oil prices rise (or supply decreases), and vice versa. For example, Brent crude oil, a type of crude oil, plummeted to $22.58 a barrel in March 2020, reaching its lowest level since 2002 due to the COVID-19 pandemic. That can happen because a lot of businesses closed, which caused the low demand for oil.Geopolitical events in any of the major oil-producing countries might also result in oil trade wars and affect oil prices. Oil prices can skyrocket as a result of conflict or crisis. This is because traders are concerned that it will limit the oil supply, causing prices to rise. The recent Russia-Ukraine conflict made oil prices top $100 per barrel for the first time since 2014 in February. What a number.In addition to crude oil, outside factors may also contribute to raising the price. Retail prices for fuel oil can be influenced by production costs and government regulations, too. The components of production costs that must be considered are the cost of crude oil, the cost of refining, the cost of distribution and marketing, and the cost of taxes. According to the Finance Ministry, Sri Mulyani, the economic price (crude oil price + production cost combined) for Pertalite is supposed to be Rp. 14.450 per liter while diesel is Rp. 13.950 per liter. Of course, the retail gasoline prices that we pay in SPBU are already subsidized by the government.Difference between subsidized prices at the pump and economic prices in Indonesia. Source: Investor Daily Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Gasoline and Diesel Fuel UpdateGovernment policy plays a vital role in ensuring that the price is reasonable for both the people and the country. According to President Joko Widodo, the energy subsidy had tripled this year from its original budget, triggered by rising global prices of oil and gas. So, rather than increasing the number of subsidies, the decision to raise fuel prices appears plausible for the time being. But why isn't the price of gasoline rising in neighboring countries like Malaysia?Well, despite having similarities in many aspects, the production and distribution of energy are structurally quite different due to factors like market size and domestic supply. Indonesia has not recently made significant profits because the domestic market has become the primary market, which is more political and economical to people than profit-driven. This presents a challenge because consumers are used to the days of cheap, plentiful oil, while Indonesia is producing less than it once did. Oil production and consumption in Indonesia Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy, various yearsPertamina’s limited refinery capacity means that it has become ever more reliant on imports and thus more sensitive to swings in global energy prices. Contrarily, Malaysia has consistently generated profits and has managed to hold gasoline prices steady despite volatility in the world energy markets. It is difficult to compare the two countries since Malaysia has a much smaller domestic market than Indonesia.The rising of fuel prices is a really sensitive issue, any changes will have a significant impact on households and small businesses. Indonesia probably needs to allocate more spending toward human resources investment, like creating more jobs and improving education, in order to be resilient to the swings of global energy. It must do more than just raise the prices to benefit from its demographic transition.References: https://thediplomat.com/2022/09/why-the-price-of-petrol-increased-in-indonesia-but-not-in-malaysia/https://www.thebalancemoney.com/how-are-oil-prices-determined-3305650#:~:text=What%20affects%20the%20price%20of,supply%2C%20and%20expected%20global%20demand.https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/072515/top-factors-reports-affect-price-oil.asphttps://www.investopedia.com/articles/economics/08/determining-oil-prices.asp

The US$1.25 billion year-on-year increase in July’s oil and gas bill contributed significantly to Indonesia’s overall monthly imports, which climbed 27.02% annually to US$26.09 billion, while non-oil and gas imports rose 23.83% to US$22.33 billion. Market analysts and government data point to a combination of elevated global crude prices, a persistently weak Indonesian Rupiah, and a domestic upstream production deficit as the core drivers behind the swelling import bill.Ateng Hartono highlighted a sharp divergence between the value and the volume of the country's energy purchases. While the monetary value of oil and gas imports soared by nearly 50%, the physical import volume rose by only 15.44% in July 2026.According to BPS data, the annual jump in July’s energy purchases was fueled by a 51.68% spike in crude oil imports which rose by US$406.3 million alongside a 49.11% increase or US$48.3 million in oil-derived products. Cumulatively, throughout the January - July 2026 period, Indonesia’s oil and gas imports expanded by US$7.39 billion, or 40.24% year-on-year. This seven-month surge was driven by oil-derived product imports totaling US$5.319 billion (up 39.6%) and crude oil imports reaching US$2.075 billion (up 41.81%).Economists warn that this macroeconomic "triple shock" of high global crude prices, a weak Rupiah, and rising logistics costs is feeding directly into imported inflation. Because energy accounts for roughly 15% of input costs across Indonesia’s manufacturing sector, downstream industries particularly petrochemicals, plastics, and packaging that rely on crude derivatives like naphtha are facing narrower profit margins and rising production expenses. At the same time, heavy corporate demand for US dollars to finance oil and gas imports places recurring pressure on Bank Indonesia’s foreign exchange reserves.To ease the financial strain of expensive crude imports while keeping domestic refineries running at optimal capacity, the government has moved to diversify its import sources, including preparing a second phase of crude oil imports from Russia. Energy and Mineral Resources Minister Bahlil Lahadalia confirmed that the procurement is being executed through a Government-to-Government (G2G) and Government-to-Business (G2B) framework involving the Testing Center for Oil and Gas ("We are looking for priority scales that can secure our crude oil supplies first, as long as they do not violate regulations and are economically viable," Minister Bahlil said in Jakarta, emphasizing that alternative crude sourcing is aimed at safeguarding national energy resilience.

Surabaya, SPE ITS SC – PT Elnusa Tbk (IDX: ELSA), an integrated energy services company under Pertamina’s Upstream Subholding, is strengthening its wireline services capabilities through a new technology access program developed in collaboration with SLB.Wireline services are specialized upstream oil and gas operations that use cable-deployed tools to collect subsurface data and perform various well interventions. These services are essential for evaluating reservoir conditions and supporting exploration and production activities.The initiative, called Technology Access Enablement and Delivery to Elnusa, forms part of the company’s 2026 transformation agenda themed “Rediscover Technology & Innovation Edge,” which emphasizes technology-driven service development and operational competitiveness.Through the collaboration, Elnusa will gain access to advanced open hole and cased hole wireline logging tools, enabling the company to expand its service portfolio and address increasingly complex subsurface challenges in upstream operations.Elnusa Director of Operations Andri Haribowo said the program is designed to broaden the scope of the company’s wireline services while strengthening internal capabilities through a structured capacity-building approach.“This collaboration not only opens access to advanced open hole tools, but also enhances Elnusa’s internal competencies and operational capacity. Previously, our services were primarily focused on cased hole logging. With this initiative, we are expanding into advanced open hole logging, creating a more comprehensive service portfolio for our customers,” he said.The cooperation framework will be implemented in phases to ensure effective technology transfer and sustainable capability development. In addition to gaining access to advanced tools, Elnusa aims to strengthen operational procedures and develop internal talent capable of independently operating the technology in the future.The program also marks a new phase of collaboration between Elnusa and PT Schlumberger Geophysics Nusantara, an affiliate of SLB. According to Armando Ballesteros, Director of PT Schlumberger Geophysics Nusantara, the partnership reflects a shared commitment to supporting technology transfer and competency development in Indonesia’s upstream services sector.Industry experts note that the adoption of advanced wireline technology is becoming increasingly important as oil and gas reservoirs grow more complex. Advanced subsurface evaluation tools allow operators to better understand reservoir characteristics, improving decision-making while reducing exploration and development risks.Strategic partnerships between local service providers and global technology companies are also seen as a key driver of innovation in the energy sector. Such collaborations can accelerate the adoption of advanced technologies while strengthening domestic technical capabilities.With the launch of the program’s initial phase, Elnusa is positioning itself as a technology-driven upstream service provider, aiming to enhance operational efficiency while supporting the development of Indonesia’s oil and gas industry.Writer: Aura Hammada