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Caught Between a Weak Rupiah and US$100 Crude: How Long Can Indonesia’s Energy Budget Hold?
The US$1.25 billion year-on-year increase in July’s oil and gas bill contributed significantly to Indonesia’s overall monthly imports, which climbed 27.02% annually to US$26.09 billion, while non-oil and gas imports rose 23.83% to US$22.33 billion. Market analysts and government data point to a combination of elevated global crude prices, a persistently weak Indonesian Rupiah, and a domestic upstream production deficit as the core drivers behind the swelling import bill.Ateng Hartono highlighted a sharp divergence between the value and the volume of the country's energy purchases. While the monetary value of oil and gas imports soared by nearly 50%, the physical import volume rose by only 15.44% in July 2026.According to BPS data, the annual jump in July’s energy purchases was fueled by a 51.68% spike in crude oil imports which rose by US$406.3 million alongside a 49.11% increase or US$48.3 million in oil-derived products. Cumulatively, throughout the January - July 2026 period, Indonesia’s oil and gas imports expanded by US$7.39 billion, or 40.24% year-on-year. This seven-month surge was driven by oil-derived product imports totaling US$5.319 billion (up 39.6%) and crude oil imports reaching US$2.075 billion (up 41.81%).Economists warn that this macroeconomic "triple shock" of high global crude prices, a weak Rupiah, and rising logistics costs is feeding directly into imported inflation. Because energy accounts for roughly 15% of input costs across Indonesia’s manufacturing sector, downstream industries particularly petrochemicals, plastics, and packaging that rely on crude derivatives like naphtha are facing narrower profit margins and rising production expenses. At the same time, heavy corporate demand for US dollars to finance oil and gas imports places recurring pressure on Bank Indonesia’s foreign exchange reserves.To ease the financial strain of expensive crude imports while keeping domestic refineries running at optimal capacity, the government has moved to diversify its import sources, including preparing a second phase of crude oil imports from Russia. Energy and Mineral Resources Minister Bahlil Lahadalia confirmed that the procurement is being executed through a Government-to-Government (G2G) and Government-to-Business (G2B) framework involving the Testing Center for Oil and Gas ("We are looking for priority scales that can secure our crude oil supplies first, as long as they do not violate regulations and are economically viable," Minister Bahlil said in Jakarta, emphasizing that alternative crude sourcing is aimed at safeguarding national energy resilience.
Geopolitical Unrest in the Middle East: Assessing the Risk to Global Oil Supply and Implications for Energy Markets in 2024
Early in 2024, there is a heightened risk of disruptions to the global oil supply due to the conflict in the Middle East —a region that supplies one-third of the world's seaborne oil trade— especially for oil flows that pass through the Suez Canal and the Red Sea. The International Energy Agency (IEA) has warned that the US and UK airstrikes on Houthi targets in Yemen in response to attacks on tankers in the Red Sea have expressed worries about the potential for an escalation of the conflict. This important trade route handled almost 10% of the world's seaborne oil commerce in 2023, or about 7.2 million barrels per day (mb/d) of crude and oil products, as well as 8% of the world's trade in liquefied natural gas (LNG). The primary alternate shipping route around the Cape of Good Hope in Africa prolongs voyages by up to two weeks, which puts strain on international supply systems and raises the cost of freight and insurance.Stable oil prices despite escalating tensionsOil companies are taking a cautious stance in response to these escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Mike Sommers, CEO of the American Petroleum Institute, has expressed worries about the growing chance of the crisis intensifying and derailing oil supplies. And although Oil prices have stayed comparatively steady despite the tensions; some experts attribute this to the impact of economic considerations on oil prices. Thus far, the Houthi raids and other Red Sea disruptions—such as the diverting of supplies away from the Suez Canal—have not had a substantial effect on energy prices. Experts have cautioned that tensions in Iran, particularly around the Hormuz, may have an impact on oil prices and that the longer the violence in Gaza continues, the more likely it is that a regional crisis may break out. The closure of important trade routes, which would have previously led to a significant increase in energy prices, has not had the same effect due to the market's confidence in the availability of supply.Assessing Supply and DemandThe World Bank's Commodity Markets Outlook in October 2023 provided a preliminary assessment of the potential near-term implications of the conflict. In a "medium disruption" scenario, the global oil supply would be reduced by 2-4 million barrels per day, initially increasing oil prices by 21% to 35%. In a "large disruption" scenario, with a reduction of 5-10 million barrels per day, oil prices could increase by 56% to 75% initially. Additionally, The IEA has revised its forecast for oil demand upward, anticipating a larger increase in global oil demand in 2024. The IEA's forecast indicates a balanced oil market, with world oil demand expected to grow by 1.1 million barrels per day in 2024, and non-OPEC supply growth projected to reach 1.2 million barrels per day. This balanced outlook is significant, considering the potential impact of the geopolitical tensions and disruptions in the Red Sea on the global oil supply. The agency's assessment of a "comfortable" oil market in 2024, despite the disruptions in the Red Sea, reflects the resilience of the oil market due to factors such as ample oil and gas supply, weaker demand in certain countries, and the ability of tankers to find alternative routes to deliver oil and gas products. ConclusionWhile the present upheavals and wars aren't having a big effect on the world energy markets, the international community should still be prepared and pay close attention to the Middle East's ongoing volatility. The developing scenario in the region could result in further escalation and have an effect on the energy landscape. Thus, in 2024, it will still be imperative to keep an eye on Middle Eastern geopolitical developments and any potential effects they may have on the energy markets.Written By: Arya Nugraha Aulia Rahman YusupReferences:Oil prices steady despite Middle East tensions, but risks are rising | Oil and Gas News | Al JazeeraOil Market Report - January 2024 – Analysis - IEAConflict in Middle East Could Bring ‘Dual Shock’ to Global Commodity Markets (worldbank.org)Geopolitical tensions in Middle East bear risks for oil supplies — IEA - Business & Economy - TASSIEA's Birol predicts 'comfortable' oil market despite Red Sea disruption | Reuters
Reaching for the Earth's Heart: The Kola Project
For centuries, humanity has looked outward to the stars, the moon and the planets. Yet there is a profound mystery that lies much closer, beneath our very feet: the Earth core. The kola borehole, or known as the Kola Project, represents one of humanity’s boldest attempts to reach the depths of our planet, uncovering secrets hidden beneath the surface.The Kola Project began in 1970 as part of the Soviet Union’s ambitious scientific endeavors. Situated on the remote Kola Peninsula in northern Russia, the project aimed to drill as deep as possible into the earth crust. The ultimate goal was to explore the composition of the earth's interior, understand its physical and chemical properties, and perhaps uncover its formation billions of years ago. Over two decades, the kola borehole reached an unprecedented depth of 12,226 meters (about 40,230 feet) in 1989, making it the deepest artificial point on earth. This incredible feat surpassed previous drilling records and remains unchallenged to this day. Despite the immense depth, the borehole only penetrated unchallenged to this day. Despite the immense depth, the borehole only penetrated about a third of the Earth’s crust, highlighting the vast scale of our planet layers. Drilling to such extraordinary depths posed numerous technical and scientific challenges. Temperatures exceeded 180°C (356°F), far higher than anticipated, making equipment prone to failure. The immense pressure of the drilling process. Despite these obstacles, the kola project provided invaluable insights into the earth’s geology. Among the project’s most significant findings were the unexpected presence of water at extreme depths and the discovery of microscopic fossils in ancient rock formations. These fossils, found more than 6 kilometers below the surface, suggested that life might have existed in environments previously considered inhospitable. Additionally, researchers gathered critical dara on seismic activity, the composition of the earth’s crust and thermal gradients. As technology advances, exploring Earth’s depths remains a compelling dream. Future drilling and robotic technologies could unlock further insights into Earth's history, tectonics, and vital resources. The Kola Project demonstrates that exploration extends to the unseen depths of our planet, reaffirming humanity's drive to uncover its mysteries
Why are Oil Prices Important for The Global Economy?
Oil prices have long been a key driver of economic trends around the world. As the primary source of energy for many industries and households, fluctuations in oil prices can have far-reaching effects on both advanced and developing economies. From transportation costs to inflation and industrial production, oil prices impact nearly every sector of the global economy. Given oil's status as a high-demand global commodity, significant price fluctuations can have profound economic consequences. Oil prices are determined by a mix of supply and demand, production costs, and market sentiment. Supply and demand are influenced by the oil futures market, where contracts are made to buy or sell oil at a specific price on a future date. The cost of extraction also affects prices—easily accessible oil is cheaper to produce, while complex methods like deep-sea drilling require costly technology, pushing prices higher. Lastly, market sentiment plays a role, as speculation about future demand can drive up prices when traders buy oil futures contracts in anticipation of future shortages or increased demand.In 2020, the demand for oil plugged during the pandemic, with lockdown causing the price to fall below zero for the first time in history to a sharp downturn in economic activity. Since then, oil prices have surged to nearly $100 per barrel, driven by strong economic recovery post-lockdown. As the economy grows, so does the demand for oil. Oil accounts for approximately 3% of global GDP and is one of the most important commodities worldwide.Source : world economic forumAn increase in oil prices affects not only gasoline cost but also virtually all goods and services. Oil serves as both a feedstock and source of energy and is integral to transportation across industries. When oil prices rise, energy is integral to transportation across industries. When oil prices ries, energy bills increase, and these costs are passed on to consumers through higher prices for goods and services. This often leads to inflation, as the cost of living rises and the purchasing power of consumers declines. For many countries, oil and gas revenues are central to their economic stability. Nations that are major exporters, such as Saudi Arabia and Russia, rely heavily on income from these resources to fund government spending, infrastructure projects, and social programs. When oil prices plummet, these countries face budget deficits, currency devaluations, and economic downturns. On the other hand, oil-importing nations, particularly in the developing world, struggle with rising import costs when prices increase, worsening trade deficits and slowing economic growth. The global dependence on oil and gas keeps national economies vulnerable to market shiftsThe oil and gas industry plays a critical role in global supply chains, especially in sectors like transportation, manufacturing, and agriculture. Rising oil and gas prices can disrupt supply chains by increasing the cost of raw materials, transportation, and energy-intensive production processes. For instance, the shipping industry, which relies on oil-based fuels, faces higher operational costs, which are then passed on to consumers. These disruptions can cause delays in the availability of goods, increase the prices of everyday items, and slow down global trade, impacting economies worldwide.Written by : Fairuz Nabila DaniputriReferences :World Economic Forum, 2022. *Why oil prices matter to the global economy: An expert explains*. World Economic Forum. Available at: [Accessed 16 September 2024].U.S. Energy Information Administration, 2022. *Indonesia – International analysis*. U.S. Energy Information Administration. Available at: [Accessed 16 September 2024].McKinsey & Company, 2020. *Oil and gas after COVID-19: The day of reckoning or a new age of opportunity?* McKinsey & Company. Available at: [Accessed 16 September 2024].